Gujcot Trade Assocation

Gujcot First Quarterly Rate Movement Report - 2024-25

Posted : January 16, 2025

Dear All Cotton Friends,

In our mission to give Daily Spot Rate Team Gujcot is getting valuable support from Gujcot broker’s panel. We appreciated their humble service to the trade. Gujcot Team is giving daily closing of Indian and foreign futures rates.

In this report we have provided Following Rates during the month.

Daily Physical Spot Rate

MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate

USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing

Cotlook Index

ICE Future Closing

NCDEX Kapas Rate

MCX Future Closing

NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate

We hope it will be useful to all the stake holders of Textile Value Chain.

During the first quarter from October to December of current cotton season, New York December futures contract expired in mid-November. There was significant downward pressure on the December futures, pushing the price down to 66.72 cents. Throughout the quarter, the December futures traded within a narrow range of 67 to 73.50 cents.
In mid-November, the NY March contract was the front month, having been 75 cents in October. However, after taking the lead role, it remained stuck in the same range of 68 - 73 cents.
The overall outlook for New York's future does not indicate a significant range of market movement. Concerns have arisen due to fears of tariffs following Trump's election victory. Additionally, developments such as a potential ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza and Lebanon regions are expected to play a key role in shaping market trends during the quarter.
Export sales during this period were lackluster and fell behind compared to last year. This decline was primarily due to the absence of China as a key buyer following the Republican win. China has shifted its focus towards Brazil, which is offering goods at a lower cost than the U.S.
In India, October began with S6 spot prices at ₹58,250 per candy. However, they continued to decline due to arrival pressure and sluggish demand. By November, the rate had dropped to ₹54,500 per candy. In December, a significant influx of arrivals, particularly in South India, further pressured the prices. Throughout December, the rates remained below ₹54,000 per candy, showing no signs of recovery.
The total cotton arrivals across India in October were approximately 20 lakh bales. By the end of November this number had reached 70 lakh bales. December, being the peak month for arrivals, is expected to witness a significant increase, likely surpassing 130 lakh bales.
The Cotton Corporation of India (C.C.I.) has been the primary buyer working to stabilize the market and prevent further declines in rates. As of December 31, 2024, C.C.I. has already procured approximately 56 lakh bales.
The Indian market basis was remained between 1,200 and 1,400 in the near future, up until November. However, by December, it was improved to a range of 1,000 to 1,200. This shift is attributed to a weaker rupee and a downtrend in the Indian physical market.
The Indian rupee remained stable within the range of 83.50 to 84.50 during October and November. However, due to the strengthening of the US dollar, it reached an all-time low, nearing 85.50 thereafter.
May the new year 2025 bring hope and smiles to the entire textile value chain.