Market Movement from 04th Nov 2024 to 09th Nov 2024.

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• This week was packed with high-impact events. U.S. election results provided some support to the dollar, the Federal Reserve implemented a 0.25% interest rate cut, and the release of a neutral WASDE report were the main highlights of the week.
• NY Dec futures closed at 70.17 cents per pound on November 1 and moved up to 70.98 on November 8, marking a week-over-week gain of 0.81 cents per pound.
• In the latest U. S. Export Sales Report for the week ending 31-Oct-2024, total net sales for the 2024-2025 marketing year reached 2,41,300 bales. This includes 2,29,000 bales of net upland cotton sales and 12,300 bales of net Pima sales. Shipments for the week were strong, with upland cotton at 1,45,800 bales and Pima at 7,500 bales, demonstrating steady movement in exports. There were no new sales reported for the 2025-2026 marketing year, keeping forward commitments for the following season at zero.
• The USDA’s November 2024 WASDE report for cotton reflects a slight reduction in U.S. production, exports, and an increase in ending stocks, now estimated at 4.3 million bales. U.S. production was revised down by 10,000 bales to just under 14.2 million, with yield unchanged at 789 pounds per acre. Exports were cut by 2,00,000 bales due to reduced global demand, primarily from Turkey and Pakistan, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 33%. Globally, cotton production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks are all lowered, with notable reductions in Pakistan and Turkmenistan, and decreased consumption in Turkey and Pakistan.
• The Gujcot Spot Rate showed a generally upward trend, starting at 54,750 Rs per candy on Monday. The rate increased slightly to 54,850 on Tuesday, dropped marginally to 54,800 on Wednesday, but picked up again to reach 54,900 on Thursday. By the end of the week, on Friday, the rate continued its upward movement, closing at 55,000. The rate for Saturday was 55,100 Rs per candy.
• The Indian physical market remained stable to firm due to increased activity around the "Muhurat" season, leading to more ginning and distribution of Kapas across a greater number of factories. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) also received dry Kapas, allowing for some procurement by the CCI. Under these conditions, the Indian physical market experienced some momentum.
• Indian basis levels were previously high, but for new business, merchants are now using the NY March futures for hedging. This shift has resulted in a lower basis with the NY March contract. Currently, India has only neighboring countries as buyers for its export cotton and cotton yarn.
• The basis in India typically remains between 11.95 and 13.25 against NY Dec future.
• Indian mills are experiencing strong domestic demand and are operating at full capacity to meet it. However, they are struggling to secure buyers at favorable rates for their exports.
• After the festival break, cotton arrival, pickup, and ginning operations have started to pick up pace. The improved rates for cottonseed are providing good margins for ginners, but they still have to compete with Minimum Support Price (MSP) procurement for their share. Currently, ginners are performing well.
• This week, the USD-INR exchange rate showed a slight upward trend. It began at 84.12 on Monday, marginally dropped to 84.11 on Tuesday, and then increased to 84.28 on Wednesday. The upward movement continued on Thursday with a rate of 84.37, ending the week at 84.38 on Friday. This steady rise indicates a strengthening of the USD against the INR as the week progressed.
• "Hope for the best."